#UlyssesPH intensifies into Typhoon

 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #13

FOR:  Typhoon "#UlyssesPH" (VAMCO)

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 11 November 2020

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today)"ULYSSES" INTENSIFIES INTO TYPHOON WHILE MOVING CLOSER TOWARDS QUEZON-AURORA AREA

Destructive winds and intense with at times torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon will be experienced over the northern portions of Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, and Camarines Norte until tonight and over Aurora and northern portion of Quezon tonight through tomorrow early morning.

Hazards affecting land areas:

• Strong winds: Throughout the passage of the typhoon, destructive typhoon-force winds will be experiencing in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. In other areas, the rest of Northern Luzon will be experiencing strong breeze to gale-force winds due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.

• Heavy rainfall:

• Until tonight, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Albay, Sorsogon, Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Burias and Ticao Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

• Between tonight and tomorrow early morning, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Bataan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, mainland Cagayan Valley, Catanduanes, Marinduque, the northern portion of Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

• Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.

• Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge with heights of up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern coastal areas of Camarines Sur, and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, northern portions of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon, and the remaining coastal areas of Camarines Sur. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and/or breaking waves near the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• Within the next 24 hours, rough to very high seas (2.5 to 10.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar currently not under TCWS #1. The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will also bring rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and rough seas (2.5 to 3.5 m) over the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters.

• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian Islands, and the eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions

Track and intensity outlook:

• Track: On the forecast track, “ULYSSES” will move generally westward throughout the forecast period and pass over the seas north of Catanduanes between this morning and afternoon and north of Camarines Provinces between this afternoon and evening. Due to the orientation of the track forecast, these provinces may fall within the inner rainbands or eyewall region of this typhoon during the passage. The center of “ULYSSES” is forecast to make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon between tonight and tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, “ULYSSES” will cross Central Luzon and emerge over the western seaboard of Zambales between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

• Intensity: “ULYSSES” intensified into typhoon at 8:00 AM today and may reach its peak intensity of 130-155 km/h prior to landfall. “ULYSSES” may slightly weaken as it crosses mainland Luzon due to frictional effects in the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon throughout its traverse.

Location of eye/center At 10:00 AM today, the center of  "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data including Daet Doppler Radar at 100 km North of Virac, Catanduanes (14.5°N, 124.2°E).  

Strength Maximum sustained winds of 125 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 155 km/h. 

Movement Moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h.

 

Forecast Positions 

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): over the coastal waters of Botolan, Zambales (15.2°N, 120.0°E)

• 48 Hour (Friday morning):470 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.4°N, 115.6°E)

• 72 Hour (Saturday morning): 910 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.4°N, 111.5°E)

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS#3

(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours) The southern portion of Aurora (Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis, Dingalan), the southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Bongabon, Gabaldon, General Tinio, Laur, Palayan City, Cabanatuan City, Santa Rosa, Peñaranda, Gapan City, San Leonardo, Jaen, San Antonio, San Isidro, Cabiao), the eastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat, Santa Ana, Mexico, San Luis, San Simon, San Fernando City, Santo Tomas, Apalit, Minalin, Bacolor, Santa Rita, Guagua, Macabebe, Masantol, Sasmuan, Lubao), Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, the northern and central portions of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Tayabas City, Sariaya, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Unisan, Agdangan, Gumaca, Plaridel, Pitogo, Macalelon, Lopez, General Luna, Catanauan, Buenavista, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez) including Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Cabusao, Bombon, Calabanga, Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan) 

• Heavy damage to high–risk structures;

• Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;

• Light damage to low risk structures

• Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed

• Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.

• There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services. 

• Almost all banana plants are downed.

• Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.

• Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.

• Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.

• Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS# 2

(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours) 

The central and southern portions of Quirino (Maddela, Cabarroguis, Aglipay, Nagtipunan), the central and southern portions of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Bambang, Kayapa, Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Alfonso Castaneda), the southern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Itogon, Tublay, La Trinidad, Sablan, Baguio City, Tuba), the southern portion of La Union (Burgos, Naguilian, Bauang, Caba, Aringay, Tubao, Pugo, Santo Tomas, Rosario, Agoo), Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Aurora, Batangas, the rest of Quezon, Marinduque, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Burias and Ticao Islands 

• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures; 

• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;

• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures

• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.

• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.

• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.

• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.

• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards

• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.

• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.

• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.

• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS#1

(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours) 

Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the rest of Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Sur, the rest of La Union, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and the rest of Masbate Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)

 

• Very light or no damage to low risk structures, 

• Light damage to medium to high risk structures

• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged

• Twigs of small trees may be broken.

• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.